Economic downturn reaches the German waste-to-energy market

Germany’s waste-to-energy (WtE) market has experienced a notable downturn in late 2025, marking a clear reversal after a comparatively calm year. Market participants report a sharp increase in volatility over the past few weeks, largely driven by the broader economic slowdown. The most significant impact is seen in non-hazardous commercial and industrial (C&I) waste, where volumes have declined dramatically. In 2025, commercial waste volumes are estimated to be 10–15% lower than the previous year and 30–40% below 2021/22 levels, a drop attributed to reduced activity across manufacturing, construction, and private consumption. Some operators describe this decline as a collapse in the C&I waste segment. By contrast, municipal residual waste volumes have remained broadly stable, although several WtE plant operators report regional declines of 3–5%. These reductions are linked to weaker consumer demand and delayed purchasing decisions, which eventually translate into lower residual waste generation. The spot market for commercial waste treatment has become increasingly fragmented. In regions where plants are seeking additional waste volumes, gate fees have fallen by around €20–30 per tone, reflecting competitive pressure and seasonal effects rather than a uniform national trend. Overall, the downturn is challenging plant utilization rates and putting pressure on pricing, particularly in areas dependent on commercial waste streams.